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US, NATO Outta Afghanistan 2021

Remius

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daftandbarmy

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Here's a heads up for those that might be keen on contracting out a bit too much:

"Nearly everything needed to run the airport effectively — airfield lighting, radars, weather systems — had been damaged or destroyed by crowds as they climbed over sensitive electronics and power supplies. European and American contractors running the airport, McClaskey said, had abandoned their posts as the crowd grew. Random gunfire echoed across the airport."
 

The Bread Guy

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Here's a heads up for those that might be keen on contracting out a bit too much:

"Nearly everything needed to run the airport effectively — airfield lighting, radars, weather systems — had been damaged or destroyed by crowds as they climbed over sensitive electronics and power supplies. European and American contractors running the airport, McClaskey said, had abandoned their posts as the crowd grew. Random gunfire echoed across the airport."
From this ...
This is worth reading - and where "U.S.", read "most other Western nations in the fight" ...
... A third common flaw in development efforts is to “cocoon” projects from the normal channels of implementation. If one feels very strongly that something needs to be done and one knows that the existing national mechanisms are to weak to do it, there is a temptation to bring in foreign contractors and import the capability. Given the resources and capabilities of American government and contracting firms, of course many things can be done quickly. But this usually not just does not build capability, it both undermines the building of national capability and does not improve a government’s legitimacy. Moreover, this gets done at costs that are astronomical relative to what the national government could ever hope to afford ...
... or stop getting done if said contractors GTFO ...
 

brihard

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Interesting... from a dentist/ rifle platoon commander.

The British Army could use alot more of those :)

A soldier’s hard look back at Canada’s Afghan mission

A young dentist’s ideals led him to Afghanistan as an infantry officer. After two tours, he began to question what was ultimately achievable.

A soldier's hard look back at Canada's Afghan mission
British dentist turned infantry officer… Did he think Helmand was the more winnable venture?
 

FJAG

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British dentist turned infantry officer… Did he think Helmand was the more winnable venture?
Not British. He's Canadian from Quebec and came to Canada as a baby with his refugee family when Saigon fell. He joined up as a reservist and volunteered for two tours in Afghanistan. Worked mostly as a duty officer and spent time mentoring the ANA.

An interesting and powerful story.

🍻 🍻
 

The Bread Guy

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View attachment 66700
Anyone able to confirm this?
Just what looks like independent (for now, anyway) AFG media quoting the Taliban denying the reports. As for the lights being on ....
... Residents in Bagram said that the lights of the base were seen on Saturday night, which is a first since US troops left the base.

Mansor said that the lights were switched on by forces related to the Islamic Emirate.

Shamshad, a resident of Bagram district, said: “The lights were switched on again at Bagram air force base. There were some voices heard at the base. An airplane has also been seen there.” ...
 

OldSolduer

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Here's a heads up for those that might be keen on contracting out a bit too much:

"Nearly everything needed to run the airport effectively — airfield lighting, radars, weather systems — had been damaged or destroyed by crowds as they climbed over sensitive electronics and power supplies. European and American contractors running the airport, McClaskey said, had abandoned their posts as the crowd grew. Random gunfire echoed across the airport."
The Romans outsourced too - apparently their cavalry was not Roman but supplied by other tribes.

Just a thought
 

daftandbarmy

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Those who aren't planning for a collapse in Afghanistan yet might be wise to review a few Mad Max movies to get a sense of what might be in store for Central Asia.



Afghanistan on verge of socio-economic collapse, EU's top diplomat says​



Afghanistan is facing a breakdown of its economic and social systems that risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Sunday.

Avoiding the worst-case scenario would require the Taliban to comply with conditions that would enable more international assistance, Josep Borrell wrote in a blog post.

"Afghanistan is experiencing a serious humanitarian crisis and a socio-economic collapse is looming, which would be dangerous for Afghans, the region and international security," Borrell wrote.

Food prices in the country have jumped more than 50% since the Taliban took power in August as the freezing of $9 billion of Afghanistan's assets held in foreign central bank reserves and the withdrawal of foreign income stokes inflation.

The Afghan banking system is largely paralysed, with people unable to withdraw money, while the country's health system - which was heavily dependent on foreign aid - is close to collapse, according to Borrell.

"If the situation continues and with winter approaching, this risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe," he wrote, adding that this could trigger mass migration into neighbouring states.

The 27-country EU has increased its humanitarian aid to Afghanistan since the Taliban took power, but halted its development assistance - a move also taken by other countries and the World Bank.

The EU response to the crisis would depend on the behaviour of the new Afghan authorities, Borrell said, and any resumption of relations would require compliance with conditions including human rights.

"This requires above all that the Taliban take the steps that will enable the international community to assist the Afghan people," he said, adding that female staff from international agencies must be able to do their job.

Widespread reports of human rights abuses and the exclusion of girls from schools have dented optimism that the Taliban's approach has changed since it first ran Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001. read more

Borrell met Qatari officials last week in the Qatari capital Doha, where the Taliban have a representation.

He said Qatar's contacts with the Taliban were aimed at moderating their behaviour, and urged Doha to use its contacts with them to ensure the "worst scenario" for Afghanistan could be avoided.

 

daftandbarmy

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My guess is that they/ we will continue to muddle through. The militaries of the Rich North have grown a bit too fond of realtively low risk/consequence 'war tourism' in the Poor South, IMHO:


NATO Futures: Three Trajectories​


Trajectory 1 (Baseline): Muddling Through

OVERVIEW

NATO endures and remains relevant in many areas, but it fails to make the investments and reforms needed to make it fit for purpose in the future. Most crucially, allies agree to enhance NATO’s collective defense capabilities to include integrating multidomain tools into its deterrence and defense posture. Crisis management and cooperative security remain its core tasks, but it fails to secure the political support and resources needed to execute them effectively, and they increasingly take place through coalitions of the willing or under EU and UN auspices. Allies increase political coordination at NATO on issues ranging from China to emerging and disruptive technologies, but this results in little more than a “talk shop” that produces statements lamenting the state of the world and condemning adversaries’ actions. The United States and European allies become increasingly frustrated with one another—the United States with allies’ failure to assume more responsibility in and around Europe or to contribute more decisively to managing China, and allies with the United States’ seemingly myopic focus on China and unwillingness (despite statements to the contrary) to allow Europeans autonomy in their own affairs. Efforts to increase investment in innovation falter as allies pursue projects that benefit their own defense industrial bases but do not necessarily enhance NATO’s defense and security. Still others fail to invest in innovation at all, widening the technology gap among allies and harming interoperability.

THREAT AND OPPORTUNITY ENVIRONMENT

NATO’s external threat environment stays at a low simmer. Russian and Chinese military buildup convinces allies of the need to maintain a strong deterrence and defense posture.

 

CBH99

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I think it’s fair to say that unless mainstream media outlets are covering a genocide with the same enthusiasm as they do with Covid, most of our future military adventures will be:

a) To gain control of precious resources, i.e., rare earth metals, oil, etc. (Although this will never be publicly acknowledged.)

b) Forced to interfere with violent internal problems of poor countries (such as daft states)

c) In support of US efforts in the event of large scale - even if short lived - military actions to support US foreign policy. (Defending Taiwan or Japan, for example.)
 
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