Ukraine - Superthread

[OceanBonfire]

If it is determined that Moscow was to blame for the blast, it could trigger NATO’s principle of collective defense known as Article 5, in which an attack on one of the Western alliance’s members is deemed an attack on all, starting deliberations on a potential military response.

Explainer: How NATO's defense obligations could be triggered by Ukraine conflict

A deadly explosion occurred in NATO member Poland's territory near its border with Ukraine on Tuesday, and the United States and its allies said they were investigating unconfirmed reports the blast was caused by stray Russian missiles.

www.reuters.com

 

[Quirky]

Great time for Canada to send a convening team to calm things down.

Or just let the Poles have at it.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Or just let the Poles have at it.

I'm sure their dogs are tugging at the chain right now to go bite Putin's face off.

 

[MilEME09]

Some speculation that it was a S300 launched from Belarus, which would change things if Belarus takes the blame

 

[Skysix]

Back on the secure/insecure coms topic for a sec, much can be made of a bad sitation if the radio users are creative

The defense of Mariupul will rank right up there with Thermopylae.

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Back on the secure/insecure coms topic for a sec, much can be made of a bad sitation if the radio users are creative

The defense of Mariupul will rank right up there with Thermopylae.

This is absolute brilliance. I am honestly humbled by their ingenuity and tenacity.

 

[MilEME09]

I'll take Russian incompetence for 1000 Alex

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592669625183264768

 

[brihard]

I'll take Russian incompetence for 1000 Alex

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592669625183264768

Huh. It’s an interesting theory. No idea if it checks out or is compelling, but if you fire enough missile volleys in wartime conditions, I could see this kind of lat/long goof happening at least once.

 

[quadrapiper]

Ukraine has a number of incredible noses loaned to them. Right now western noses are intruding like my golden retriever snuffling under the door when I’m on the can.

Quite like that metaphor.

We have the US, UK, and other super technological western powers applying much of what they’re got to discerning every move the Russians make. They’re listening to stuff you or I don’t even know or suspect exists. Even if Russia had some big-brain plan to lure Ukraine into some sort of trap, Ukraine is likely in a place to discern the trap and exploit the hell out of Russian intent.

They also give every impression of being on top of those things that can be accomplished by small number of suitably kitted and trained people going for a walk.

 

[Kirkhill]

And for something a bit lighter

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yv5iv8

Another view

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yw2wxa

Some of you may remember this "model" and her "toy" gun. The video is hers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u9yka2

This is her own thread

panikiranechai (u/panikiranechai) - Reddit

u/panikiranechai: How to help the unit? Medical supply https://www.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/3ING3J4HK2IYH?ref_=wl_share : PayPal …

www.reddit.com

 

[Skysix]

From a Ukrainian source but even without the commentary the video shows a side of provincial Russian life that is not impressive.

 

[McG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592775060456378369

 

[Eaglelord17]

So the current narrative is its either Ukrainian or it was shot down by Ukraine/AD sent them that way.

My guess is that is a excuse to avoid putting the blame directly on Russia to avoid actual conflict with NATO countries. They are achieving their geopolitical goals there without having to sacrifice any of their troops, why change that?

 

[The Bread Guy]

Some of the narrative from Poland ...

Poland, NATO say missile landing wasn't Russian attack

Poland said there is "absolutely no indication" that missile which came down in Polish farmland, killing two people, was intentional attack.

calgarysun.com

 

[MilEME09]

So the current narrative is its either Ukrainian or it was shot down by Ukraine/AD sent them that way.

My guess is that is a excuse to avoid putting the blame directly on Russia to avoid actual conflict with NATO countries. They are achieving their geopolitical goals there without having to sacrifice any of their troops, why change that?

I wished it was Belarus who fired it, give NATO a diplomatic move to tell Russia get out of Ukraine or Belarus will have a new leader by Christmas

 

[daftandbarmy]

Time to double down...


Russia needs a respite, so the West must help Ukraine fight on

The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict

Poland and its allies deserve praise for their calm response. As Russia’s state media gloated over the death of Poles and accused its enemies of a “provocation”, nato governments collected evidence and avoided raising the temperature. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, made a rare misstep in painting the accident as a Russian missile attack. But Russia’s behaviour courts disaster. In March it struck a base just 15 miles from the Polish border. The same month, a Soviet-era drone carrying explosives crashed in the Croatian capital, Zagreb. In September a Russian jet inadvertently fired an air-to-air missile close to a British spyplane in international airspace over the Black Sea. Russia does not want a war with nato. But it hopes that such danger will induce nato to back down.

That must not happen. Some American officials are showing signs of nerves. Mark Milley, America’s top general, has compared the conflict to the stalemate of the first world war. He has cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to shift the front lines further and suggested that it should consider negotiations with the Kremlin. His diagnosis and prescription are both flawed.

Russia needs a respite, so the West must help Ukraine fight on

The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict

www.economist.com

 

[NavyShooter]

 

[Kirkhill]

A bit of porn for the tankees. 10 minutes of Gopro video from inside Russian tanks.

Two companies? of Russian tanks, fighting for ground 7 km from the end of the Donetsk airport runway. Not much movement in 8 years.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/yx3d6u

 

[Skysix]

Note the missing circuit boards - perhaps there is a standing order to acquire as much western electronics as possible so the chips can be built into Russian weapons...

 

[Kirkhill]

More from UK Forces News on the Ukrainian 5 week courses in the UK.

200 civilians per intake. 5 weeks of instruction. Down selection of Junior Leaders on the fly from the course.

Ukraininian Platoon Commanders brought in to advise, revise and brief back the Brits. Lessons Learned

18,000 Ukrainians reported dead by Ben Wallace - since 2014.