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Chinese Military,Political and Social Superthread

Dana381

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The big difference between the Falklands example, and modern China, is the world didn’t rely on the Falklands to manufacture a majority of it’s goods on the cheap.

Nor did Argentina piss off it’s neighbours and present them with such a sinister threat in their future. Nor did Argentina’s neighbours spend the last decade plus arming themselves specifically with Argentina in mind.

Your looking at the differences, I'm looking at the similarities. Both leaders are/were facing dwindling public support. Both have territories that they believe belong to them and both have a population that has had years of indoctrination convincing them that the people living there really want to be liberated from their occupying governments. Argentinian soldiers were surprised by the amount of British citizens they encountered when they arrived in the Falklands. They were led to believe through years of indoctrination in the schools that the Falkland residents were Argentinians who desperately wanted to be liberated from the British.

I don't know much about the Chinese school system but I believe I am safe to assume they have been subject to the same type of indoctrination when it comes to Taiwan. Xi will be a national hero for reclaiming Taiwan and the CCP will not be able to remove him without looking like they are against China.
Western countries will rush to find alternate suppliers for their goods, as none of them will want a trading relationship that supports what China is doing.

Western politicians will feed their fish what the fish want. Big corporations will rush to set up factories in other countries nearby, western countries will freeze trade agreements & review such, and before you know it China has yet ANOTHER income problem.


- Western countries will use this as the excuse they’ve been blatantly searching for in excluding Chinese companies from bidding on projects that involve national security, re 5G networks.

I agree with RangerRay's take that money talks and western countries will turn a blind eye to the war and continue to produce goods in China. I am continually amazed at what western people will accept from China. Ugyhur genocide and concentration camps, Taking Canadians hostage (Two Michaels), Blatantly copying western designs without paying royalties, Pressuring Chinese people living in the west by threatening their family still in China. If these have not swayed them war with Taiwan will not.

I myself actively avoid Chinese made goods where possible because of this.

Remember IBM made the punch card computers the Nazi's used to sort the Jews and Russian prisoners determining which ones to exterminate and which ones to send to labour camps. I do believe they knew what the were being used for and agreed with it in principle.

- Taiwan is armed to the teeth.

Will China eventually succeed just in terms of sheer numbers? Yes. But at what cost?

China would lose AT LEAST dozens of aircraft, warships, transport ships, along with plenty of other military assets.

These are now assets that can’t be used until replaced (both hardware and trained operator) at a time when the US and Japan would be engaging Chinese forces also. That’s a best case scenario for China too… having Australia, India, and South Korea jump into the fight would make things even worse.

China will succeed if the west does nothing! I believe the west will do nothing because the western people do not want war, they are too busy arguing about Covid issues while giving losers trophy's for showing up. So what if Taiwan becomes a part of China again, it was theirs before! Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland all over again.

China will lie to the west that and say that they are only interested in reclaiming Taiwan and if allowed to do so they won't have to use their nukes or some other threat that scares the west more than the annexation of Taiwan. It worked for Hitler in the Sudetenland, it worked for Russia in Ukraine with Crimea.

Remember, the Chinese play the long game and us the West have ADHD. I completely agree about the flight of capital out of China and it becoming a pryha state but they can always turn to others for some of their needs to be meet - Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Venezuela, etc. It's almost like the situation with the Taliban in Af'stan - we have the watches but they have the time.....

The Chinese HAVE been playing the long game. They have been investing in cyber warfare and espionage for years now. China could very well have people in place in Taiwan that are in a position to prevent Taiwan reacting to a Chinese Invasion. They will likely shut down communications so the Taiwan military cannot coordinate their defense. Allowing them to just walk in and take the country.

Agreed, both sides have to thread the needle, but it's a much finer needle for China.

My observation is China doesn't thread needles, they do what they want and if you disagree with them they cry foul and take a tantrum kicking and screaming like a toddler. I.e. Trump's trade war with China.

In the early days of Covid they had the World Health Organization convincing country leaders that if they closed their borders to China it would be seen as racist and harm their trade with China. Meanwhile they used their pressure tactics to have Chinese nationals buy up masks and medical gear and ship it back to China. While also convincing Canada's government to donate supplies to them effectively draining our supplies and causing how many cases of Covid in Canada?

They are like a spoiled child and will take what they want to hell with whoever gets in their way.

World War Three is coming and it will start in China. It's just a matter of when!

Again this is just my $0.02 and what do I know?
 

Altair

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My observation is China doesn't thread needles, they do what they want and if you disagree with them they cry foul and take a tantrum kicking and screaming like a toddler. I.e. Trump's trade war with China.

In the early days of Covid they had the World Health Organization convincing country leaders that if they closed their borders to China it would be seen as racist and harm their trade with China. Meanwhile they used their pressure tactics to have Chinese nationals buy up masks and medical gear and ship it back to China. While also convincing Canada's government to donate supplies to them effectively draining our supplies and causing how many cases of Covid in Canada?

They are like a spoiled child and will take what they want to hell with whoever gets in their way.

World War Three is coming and it will start in China. It's just a matter of when!

Again this is just my $0.02 and what do I know?
If China didn't need to thread needles they would be bombing Taiwan right now.

The fact that they are not says they are playing it safe.

And Taiwan could win versus China with enough outside support. Modern anti Air missiles. Modern anti ship missiles. Stealth fighters. A large stockpile of medium sized and long range missiles. Enough ammunition to last for a year under blockade. Doesn't really need boots on the ground, although that would help.
 

Dana381

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If China didn't need to thread needles they would be bombing Taiwan right now.

The fact that they are not says they are playing it safe.

And Taiwan could win versus China with enough outside support. Modern anti Air missiles. Modern anti ship missiles. Stealth fighters. A large stockpile of medium sized and long range missiles. Enough ammunition to last for a year under blockade. Doesn't really need boots on the ground, although that would help.

I agree with you whole heartedly, Taiwan could win with enough support. I don't believe that support will be there when sh#t hits the fan!
The U.S has never publicly backed up Taiwan. I believe they are officially neutral.

I believe that China has been laying the ground work for an invasion for a while. And now they are testing defenses and gathering intel

 

MilEME09

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I agree with you whole heartedly, Taiwan could win with enough support. I don't believe that support will be there when sh#t hits the fan!
The U.S has never publicly backed up Taiwan. I believe they are officially neutral.

I believe that China has been laying the ground work for an invasion for a while. And now they are testing defenses and gathering intel

Officially the Taiwan relations act sets in stone the US commitment to defend the island. If they didnt, their would be no saving face and no one would take American treaty commitments seriously.
 

Dana381

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The Taiwan Relations Act does not guarantee the U.S. will intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan nor does it relinquish it, as its primary purpose is to ensure the US's Taiwan policy will not be changed unilaterally by the president and ensure any decision to defend Taiwan will be made with the consent of Congress. The act states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities". However, the decision about the nature and quantity of defense services that America will provide to Taiwan is to be determined by the President and Congress. America's policy has been called "strategic ambiguity", and it is designed to dissuade Taiwan from a unilateral declaration of independence, and to dissuade the PRC from unilaterally unifying Taiwan with the PRC.[citation needed]

The act further stipulates that the United States will "consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States".

The act requires the United States to have a policy "to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character", and "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." Successive U.S. administrations have sold arms to Taiwan in compliance with the Taiwan Relations Act despite demands from the PRC that the U.S. follow the legally non-binding Three Joint Communiques and the U.S. government's proclaimed One-China policy (which differs from the PRC's interpretation of its one-China principle).
Above quote from Wikipedia.

U.S. does not say it will defend Taiwan just provide arms to Taiwan if they choose to buy them. It stops short of promising U.S military intervention. That gives the U.S. the out it needs to do nothing.

I stand corrected, they are not officially neutral. I was going by memory and that failed me again. I apologize.
 

Colin Parkinson

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Your looking at the differences, I'm looking at the similarities. Both leaders are/were facing dwindling public support. Both have territories that they believe belong to them and both have a population that has had years of indoctrination convincing them that the people living there really want to be liberated from their occupying governments. Argentinian soldiers were surprised by the amount of British citizens they encountered when they arrived in the Falklands. They were led to believe through years of indoctrination in the schools that the Falkland residents were Argentinians who desperately wanted to be liberated from the British.

I don't know much about the Chinese school system but I believe I am safe to assume they have been subject to the same type of indoctrination when it comes to Taiwan. Xi will be a national hero for reclaiming Taiwan and the CCP will not be able to remove him without looking like they are against China.


I agree with RangerRay's take that money talks and western countries will turn a blind eye to the war and continue to produce goods in China. I am continually amazed at what western people will accept from China. Ugyhur genocide and concentration camps, Taking Canadians hostage (Two Michaels), Blatantly copying western designs without paying royalties, Pressuring Chinese people living in the west by threatening their family still in China. If these have not swayed them war with Taiwan will not.

I myself actively avoid Chinese made goods where possible because of this.

Remember IBM made the punch card computers the Nazi's used to sort the Jews and Russian prisoners determining which ones to exterminate and which ones to send to labour camps. I do believe they knew what the were being used for and agreed with it in principle.



China will succeed if the west does nothing! I believe the west will do nothing because the western people do not want war, they are too busy arguing about Covid issues while giving losers trophy's for showing up. So what if Taiwan becomes a part of China again, it was theirs before! Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland all over again.

China will lie to the west that and say that they are only interested in reclaiming Taiwan and if allowed to do so they won't have to use their nukes or some other threat that scares the west more than the annexation of Taiwan. It worked for Hitler in the Sudetenland, it worked for Russia in Ukraine with Crimea.



The Chinese HAVE been playing the long game. They have been investing in cyber warfare and espionage for years now. China could very well have people in place in Taiwan that are in a position to prevent Taiwan reacting to a Chinese Invasion. They will likely shut down communications so the Taiwan military cannot coordinate their defense. Allowing them to just walk in and take the country.



My observation is China doesn't thread needles, they do what they want and if you disagree with them they cry foul and take a tantrum kicking and screaming like a toddler. I.e. Trump's trade war with China.

In the early days of Covid they had the World Health Organization convincing country leaders that if they closed their borders to China it would be seen as racist and harm their trade with China. Meanwhile they used their pressure tactics to have Chinese nationals buy up masks and medical gear and ship it back to China. While also convincing Canada's government to donate supplies to them effectively draining our supplies and causing how many cases of Covid in Canada?

They are like a spoiled child and will take what they want to hell with whoever gets in their way.

World War Three is coming and it will start in China. It's just a matter of when!

Again this is just my $0.02 and what do I know?
China has stepped up it's activity to wear down the Taiwanese forces, using military aircraft to intrude into their airspace. At sea Chinese dredging and fishing fleets violate the agreed upon territorial waters in mass numbers. First steps will be PRC swallowing the island close to the Mainland and seeing what the response is. Likely Taiwan is going to sacrifice those islands as they will be untenable and maintain it's forces to protect the main island. As for undercover agents, no doubt the PRC has placed them there and no doubt the Taiwanese know most of them and leave them alone so they can track them.
300px-Kinmen%2CMatsu%2CWuciou.png
 

Altair

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China has stepped up it's activity to wear down the Taiwanese forces, using military aircraft to intrude into their airspace. At sea Chinese dredging and fishing fleets violate the agreed upon territorial waters in mass numbers. First steps will be PRC swallowing the island close to the Mainland and seeing what the response is. Likely Taiwan is going to sacrifice those islands as they will be untenable and maintain it's forces to protect the main island. As for undercover agents, no doubt the PRC has placed them there and no doubt the Taiwanese know most of them and leave them alone so they can track them.
300px-Kinmen%2CMatsu%2CWuciou.png
If I was Taiwan I would be making those islands the most hard to invade fortresses just to give the Chinese a hint of what's to come if they hit the main island.
 

daftandbarmy

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China has stepped up it's activity to wear down the Taiwanese forces, using military aircraft to intrude into their airspace. At sea Chinese dredging and fishing fleets violate the agreed upon territorial waters in mass numbers. First steps will be PRC swallowing the island close to the Mainland and seeing what the response is. Likely Taiwan is going to sacrifice those islands as they will be untenable and maintain it's forces to protect the main island. As for undercover agents, no doubt the PRC has placed them there and no doubt the Taiwanese know most of them and leave them alone so they can track them.
300px-Kinmen%2CMatsu%2CWuciou.png

I'm sorry but you have been misled, Comrade. It's the Taiwanese who are spying on China :)


China uses new tactic in campaign against Taiwan with spy accusations​


TAIPEI (Reuters) - China has opened a new front in its pressure campaign against Taiwan with a series of spying allegations and confessions aired on state television, denounced on the democratic island as entrapment and another reason for people to fear visiting China.

China views Taiwan as its sovereign territory and has stepped up a campaign to assert its claim, including sending fighter jets near the island.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen says the island will not provoke but will defend itself.

Starting on Sunday evening, Chinese state television has been showing what it says are detained Taiwanese spies who have been operating in China, and confessing to their crimes.

China, under its Thunder-2020 campaign, has cracked hundreds of cases orchestrated by Taiwan’s intelligence forces to “infiltrate and damage” and set up a network of spies, state television said.

The Global Times, a widely read Chinese tabloid run by the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily, said on Wednesday the revelations were a warning to “Taiwan separatist forces”.

 

The Bread Guy

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Latest tea leaves to be read ....
"China's Xi vows 'reunification' with Taiwan, but holds off threatening force" (Reuters)
... Speaking at Beijing's Great Hall of the People, Xi said the Chinese people have a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.

"Taiwan independence separatism is the biggest obstacle to achieving the reunification of the motherland, and the most serious hidden danger to national rejuvenation," he said on the anniversary of the revolution that overthrew the last imperial dynasty in 1911.

Peaceful "reunification" best meets the overall interests of the Taiwanese people, but China will protect its sovereignty and unity, he added ...
"Xi stresses peaceful reunification, calls Taiwan secessionists 'serious threat' to national rejuvenation" (CHN Communist Party media, links to archived version)
... National reunification by peaceful means best serves the interests of the Chinese nation as a whole, including compatriots in Taiwan, Xi remarked at the gathering.

"Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits should stand on the right side of history and join hands to achieve China's complete reunification and the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," Xi said.

(...)

Xi delivered very strong and sharp remarks with a clear message to "Taiwan independence" secessionists, Yok Mu-ming, former president of the pro-reunification New Party of Taiwan, told the Global Times on Saturday.

"If those secessionists don't stop, the mainland will take relevant measures," Yok said. Yok even predicted that the Taiwan question "will be resolved within two years."

He also mentioned on his personal social media accounts earlier that the deadline for solving the Taiwan question will be 2024. "Hopefully, we'll embrace the reunification and the national rejuvenation together." ...
 

MilEME09

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It would appear the domestic issues keep increasing for the CCP, climate disasters causing more and more damage. This can also explain the increased attention on Taiwan and the south China sea. By focusing on external factors to distract the people from internal problems. I wouldn't be surprised if they invaded in order to prop up domestic support
 

Dana381

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It would appear the domestic issues keep increasing for the CCP, climate disasters causing more and more damage. This can also explain the increased attention on Taiwan and the south China sea. By focusing on external factors to distract the people from internal problems. I wouldn't be surprised if they invaded in order to prop up domestic support

(y) Rat's are unpredictable when backed into a corner or facing being ousted from their party!

An attack on Taiwan becomes more likely as Xi's position in the CCP becomes more threatened.
 

daftandbarmy

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CBH99

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The U.S has never publicly backed up Taiwan. I believe they are officially neutral.

I believe that China has been laying the ground work for an invasion for a while. And now they are testing defenses and gathering intel
Never underestimate the power of underhanded diplomacy, proxy states, false flag operations, or provoking a response while acting surprised at said response, etc.

Japan has vowed to intervene if China invades Taiwan. Japan’s military, while ‘defensive in nature’ due to treaty obligations, shouldn’t be remotely underestimated.

The US, by Treaty, is obligated to defend Japan if it were to be attacked. (Hence the stationing of substantial assets in Japan.)

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if the US uses this arrangement to get involved, officially, if things kick off.



You also say the US has never officially backed Taiwan. Not true.

The US recently approved the sale of advanced F-16’s, an upgrade package for Taiwan’s F-16 fleet, as well as a variety of other arms sales.

The US actively supports Taiwan with sales/upgrade packages, as well as US SOF instructing Taiwanese military. (Just recently made public, China not too happy about it.)

The US also regularly sails ships through the Taiwan Straight to exercise Freedom of the Seas. It is also very much a show of force, and is a reminder to China that America is around.



All of your points are solid though Dana381. It will be interesting to see how it all unfolds. 🍻
 

Good2Golf

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Taiwanese Microchip Production Analysis - LinkIf it fails I think your right. If successful however I could see him gaining much popularity amongst the CCP.

During the Falklands war Galtieri was a hero when the invasion succeeded but ended up ousted because he couldn't hold onto it.

The China/Taiwan affair may play out similar. China's history of war with the west has ended with draws (Korea/Vietnam). If they do decide to attack Taiwan they will fully expect to get away with it and I don't think the west has the political will to stop them.

Think Afghanistan; very little political backlash for pulling out and handing the country back to a terrorist regime that at least in part was responsible for an attack on American soil.

The American military kept it secret till today that they have been in Taiwan for a year now. They knew that it would be too unpopular back home.

If China Invades Taiwan in my opinion the majority of people in the west will not support their militaries backing Taiwan in a war. They will be afraid of WWIII with China. Too many Neville Chamberlains that will accept China's lies for fear of all out war.

Just my $0.02

This is essentially all about semiconductors.

Taiwan will not be another Afghanistan. Taiwan is responsible for a massive share of global chip production and I don’t think the West (or at least the US) has any intention to let China de facto control global chip production.

The quote below in yellow says it all…

Link

Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry

At the foundation of today’s technology, semiconductors have been regarded as the “new oil” of the 21st century. Omnipresent in our daily life (ranging from mobile phones, to cars and fighter jets), the semiconductor industry is becoming a crucial element of national security, moving beyond matters related to global trade.

Taiwan holds a near monopoly in this security-related product. Responsible for 63% of global semiconductor market share, Taiwan lies at the heart of the semiconductor industry, reaching an output value of 3 trillion NTD in 2020 (107.53 billion USD). As a world leader in semiconductor manufacturing, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (臺灣積體電路製造公司,TSMC) accounts for 54% of the global semiconductor market share. The demand for the chips below 10 nm (the most advanced chips available thus far) is towering and is estimated to become the largest portion of monthly installed capacity share in 2024. Currently, in the global market of chips below 10 nanometers, TSMC is the major supplier (accounting for 84% of the pure foundry revenue in 2020). The only competitor producing chips below 10 nm is Samsung of South Korea with a 14% of pure foundry revenue in 2020. So far, the major clients of TSMC, such as China and the US, do not have the capacity to produce their own advanced semiconductors. As a result, Taiwan has become an indispensable link in the global production of semiconductors.



Geopolitical Significance

The geopolitical significance of semiconductors can best be illustrated by a quote from Martijn Rasser, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security: “Whoever controls the design and production of these microchips, they will set the course for the 21st century.” As the primary semiconductor supplier to the US and China, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry plays a vital role on the global scene from a geopolitical perspective. Up to 90% of the semiconductors applied by US technological companies – including Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm – rely on Taiwanese manufacturing. According to estimations by the US Semiconductor Industry Association, a complete disruption of the global semiconductor supply chain would cause a 490 billion USD annual loss in revenue for global electronic device producers worldwide. Therefore, in order to secure the supply of semiconductors, the US has a growing incentive to safeguard Taiwan’s status and prevent heavy economic and political costs to be borne by the US and the rest of the world.

Furthermore, China’s reliance on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry may have China think twice and refrain from using military force against Taiwan in the short term. Taiwan’s outsized influence can serve as a “silicon shield”, as coined by Craig Addison in Silicon Shield: Taiwan’s Protection Against Chinese Attack. In it, Addison claims that the rising importance of Taiwan in the global semiconductor supply chain may deter China from military action in the near future. To maintain this “shield”, Taiwan would need to stay ahead of its competitors, to keep its indispensable position in the global semiconductor supply chain and preserve its competitive advantage.

In particular, Taiwan’s geopolitical significance has been highlighted during the semiconductor shortage caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In a letter to Mei Hua Wang (Taiwan’s Minister of Economy) in February 2021, Peter Altmaier (Germany’s Minister of Economy) urged Taiwan to boost its production of semiconductors, emphasising the severe consequences faced by the German automotive industry due to the scarcity of these components.
 

Dana381

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Interesting read G2G,

I did not know Taiwan had such a huge share in semiconductors. Certainly would make both sides much more interested in Taiwan. It gives the U.S. a self protection reason to help Taiwan which might tip the balance in their favour. We will see.
 

Czech_pivo

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I’m still of the belief to expect the CCP to feint one way but move the other.
Bullies never, ever like to take on a foe that is willing to put up enough of a fight that the Bully could lose outright or take enough of a beating to lose all street cred. To me that is the CCP - Taiwan scenario. I’d look for the CCP pick some other much lower hanging fruit - more seizing of islets in the 9 dash zone, maybe bullying the Philippines and seizing a few of their claimed islets. The Philippines is sort of a de-facto US protectorate and by doing so makes the US look weak in their eyes.
I still think the puppet in NK will have a role to play in all of this.
 

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