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All things Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Brad Sallows

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The point is that COVID is unlikely to ever be so very much "under control" that no public health measures will be needed. At the least, I expect seasonal boosters - just like with flu - to be part of the public health measures.
 

Altair

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The point is that COVID is unlikely to ever be so very much "under control" that no public health measures will be needed. At the least, I expect seasonal boosters - just like with flu - to be part of the public health measures.
Most influenza pandemics burn out eventually.
 

lenaitch

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Quote:
Covid is not the flu. It sure is close

Covid pushed Alberta to the brink, Sensationalism, and I'm being charitable.




Well, there's this:

"Patients admitted to hospital in Ontario with COVID-19 had a 3.5 times greater risk of death, 1.5 times greater use of the ICU, and 1.5 times longer hospital stays than patients admitted with influenza.”


and this:

"Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in the Veterans Health Administration had a more than five times higher risk for in-hospital death and increased risk for 17 respiratory and nonrespiratory complications than did hospitalized patients with influenza."

 

Brad Sallows

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Most influenza pandemics burn out eventually.

Pretty much all "burn out" in the sense that they come and go, usually seasonally, but flu is endemic. So mitigation is ongoing. COVID is endemic, so mitigation will be ongoing. So no point setting foolishly unattainable goals which become excuses for perpetually crippling restrictions.
 

HiTechComms

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Pretty much all "burn out" in the sense that they come and go, usually seasonally, but flu is endemic. So mitigation is ongoing. COVID is endemic, so mitigation will be ongoing. So no point setting foolishly unattainable goals which become excuses for perpetually crippling restrictions.
Isn't the reason why people join the Military.. They enjoy the crippling restrictions and eventual burnout but sign the extension eventually because Pension

:D
/Joke Attempted
 

brihard

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I don't think anyone is seriously talking about retaining any degree of restrictions any longer than is necessary to preserve the capacity of the healthcare system to handle critical cases. It has always been the risk that the kid mangled in a car crash m ight not get an ICU bed that has justified this. The only reason that has not happened in several (most?) provinces is because of the resort to significant restrictions on contacts and mobility. For the most part,t hen provincial panels of epidemiological experts have released modeling, cases have pretty much tracked what they said would happen if the steps they recommended were taken. And, in the infamous instances of Ontario last spring saying "We want to wait and see if the modeling bears out first before enacting further restrictions" - it did. That was almost catastrophic, because while Ontario can absorb ICU cases from other smaller provinces, there would have been little opportunity for Ontario to transfer out.

Viruses tend to mutate towards less virulence. It's simple selective pressure; the worse the virus is, the more we act to limit spread, and the less opportunity it has to spread. Covid has been a right bastard in that it started out bad enough to be a huge problem once the law of large numbers applies, but not bad enough to be scary enough to a lot of people to take it seriously. People are afraid of something gross that makes them bleed out like Ebola; they aren't as individually afraid of the prospect of needing an ICU bed and not getting one. Because COVID has been able to spread so massively, and has faced partial resistance in the form of public health measures, it's had a plethora of opportunities to face selective pressures, stimulating the evolution of trickier variants. That's still continuing.

I suspect we'll see this move in the direction of the flu shot. As a public health measure, a voluntary routine inoculation to part of the population is sort of like the control rods in a reactor. Those of us who choose to get it will help to lessen the risk for those who do. Just like how flu still puts a bunch of people in hospital each year and kills some, but isn't bad enough to threaten the system in toto like Covid has.

Something like 90% of those eligible in Ontario (12+) now have their first shot, nearly all will presumably get the second. Boosters are becoming available for the most vulnerable, and it looks like there will likely be vaccines for children soon. I think that this fourth wave will probably represent the final 'petering out' of the dangerous part of the epidemic in Canada, unless a new variant emerges that consistently escapes existing immunity conferred by vaccination or prior infection. IF that happens it'll suck. But so far the vaccines have been faring generally well - probably well enough - against variants. I'm cautiously optimistic we're nearing the end of the worst of this.
 

Altair

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Pretty much all "burn out" in the sense that they come and go, usually seasonally, but flu is endemic. So mitigation is ongoing. COVID is endemic, so mitigation will be ongoing. So no point setting foolishly unattainable goals which become excuses for perpetually crippling restrictions.
Oh yes, I forget about the annual Spanish flu wave...

In all seriousness the 1918 1957, 1969, and 2009 influenza pandemics all eventually lost steam and died off allowing society to go back to normal. They didn't in large part become endemic.
 

Altair

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Flu is not endemic here...that's one for the ages.
The spanish flu was a strain of influenza that ran its course. Same as Covid 19 is a strain of influenza that will run its course.

But the spanish flu isn't killing 50 million people a year in waves, and thus that strain is not endemic.

Unless you believe that the spanish flu strain of influenza is widely circulating killing 50 million people a year?
 

brihard

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Flu is not endemic here...that's one for the ages.
There are many different variants of influenza. 'Spanish Flu' was an H1N1 type; we've seen it crop up a few times since, but it's not a regular. When is does crop up (e.g., 2009 'Swine Flu'), that's normally a crappy year.

Influenza, broadly, is endemic- normally emerging out of pig or poultry populations in Asia, mutating to a human transmissible form, and then circling the globe. They try to catch it in the early phase, make an educated guess of which strains are most likely to 'go human', and formulate flu vaccines based on that. Usually works, sometimes they miss.

Any one specific type of influenza is not necessarily endemic. Some types present more danger than others. I'm not qualified to say why.
 

QV

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@QV If you need to send your patients to other provinces and call in military assistance you're at or past the brink
"We're sending in the Military!" ~ 8 people arrive.... I bet the province fired or retired more healthcare staff in a single day than what the "military assistance" amounted to. But the soundbite sure sounds good and the timing was superb.

Note there was no mention of all the patients in Alberta hospitals (from all kinds of medical issues) from neighboring provinces when Alberta was apparently begging to send theirs out of province.

For a healthcare system "on the brink" and so short staffed, I'm watching with interest for the outcome when they fire (sorry LWOP) all those not participating in the mandatory vaccine. The Quebec situation is a signal how that could turnout here (ok ok you have another month, or else!)
 

daftandbarmy

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Isn't the reason why people join the Military.. They enjoy the crippling restrictions and eventual burnout but sign the extension eventually because Pension

:D
/Joke Attempted


RedFlags.jpeg
 

Altair

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"We're sending in the Military!" ~ 8 people arrive.... I bet the province fired or retired more healthcare staff in a single day than what the "military assistance" amounted to. But the soundbite sure sounds good and the timing was superb.
Yes, why else would the Alberta government need to make a announcement that they were requesting help from military in the middle of a election campaign?

The Feds cannot send in the military unilaterally, the province needed to ask for it, probably because it was needed.
Note there was no mention of all the patients in Alberta hospitals (from all kinds of medical issues) from neighboring provinces when Alberta was apparently begging to send theirs out of province.
There was no mention because it didn't matter at that point. When the hospitals are about to collapse and start denying care because their capacity was all accounted for, it matters little how they got into the situation, just that they were in it.

and it was covid doing that. Not a flu. They are not comparable.

The rest of your post is not worth commenting on.
 

Brad Sallows

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"Flu" is a generic reference to all strains of influenza, just as "COVID-19" is a generic reference to all strains of COVID 19 ("delta", etc). Nit-picking isn't going to make either one of them any less endemic.
 

brihard

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"Flu" is a generic reference to all strains of influenza, just as "COVID-19" is a generic reference to all strains of COVID 19 ("delta", etc). Nit-picking isn't going to make either one of them any less endemic.

That's not an accurate comparison at all. The respective variants of COVID are much more closely related to each other that the varying strains of flu, as evidenced by the fact that COVID vaccines or prior infections appear to confer immunity to all current variants, while a flu shot covers a couple, but only a couple of the strains that are out there. There is much greater genetic variation between various H#N# types of Influenza than there are between different COVID variants.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the COVID-19 disease, is one of many different types of coronavirus. Think of 'SARS-CoV-2' (or COVID-19) as akin to H1N1 Influenza A, and 'Coronavirus' as akin to 'influenza'. It's still a crude analogy, but much closer to useful equivalence.
 

brihard

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Agreed. It matters how much to dealing with endemic COVID ?
It remains to be seen whether COVID in its recognizable current form will go endemic, or if it will either flame out or mutate to the point where, though it goes endemic, it's no longer particularly dangerous. So we can't tell yet.
 
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