Topic: Caucasus In Crisis- Georgia and Russia at War

[Haggis]

I'm aware of the oil pipelines in the area, just wasn't aware of any tensions in the area concerning the flow.       

Gotcha.

Interestingly, Georgia is not a major producer, just a transitway (much like many conspiracy theorists beleive Afghanistan is destined to be).

IMO the issue has much les to do with oil and much more to do with Russia exerting a "presence" in the face of NATO by supporting/sheletering the Ossetian rebels (and Abkhazians, as well) in the face of an intransigent and defiant former member of Sovietskogoi Soyuza.  Remember, South (Georgian) Ossetia and North (Russian) Ossetia border Ingushesta.  North Ossetia is also the province of Beslan, location of the huge school massacre a few years ago which Russia blames on Chechen rebels who infiltrated from Ingushesta.   It didn't take much for Russia to "connect the dots" and infer that these terrorists were supported by Georgia.

Additionally, since the early part of this decade the Russians have strongly opposed all NATO activity in Georgia; GTEP, GS, PfP etc.

[Proud_Newfoundlander]

Hmm, right timing. Everyone is watching the olympics, especially the opening ceremonies today

[oligarch]

Did anyone even mention the fact that prior to Russian involvement Georgia spent all night shelling the South Ossetian capital and killing as much as 1400 ethnic Ossetians, many of whom hold Russian citizenship? Does this not constitute a form of ethnic cleansing on the part of Georgia? How about the fact that Georgia does this in light of a cease-fire it claimed to have agreed to the night before and the fact that Georgia's invasion of South Ossetia was illegal according UNSC resolutions, and the CIS cease-fire agreement? Georgia flagrantly disregards international law and and recieves support from Washington's disinformational media due only to the fact that Georgia is helping them in Iraq. There are also rumours of Russian peacekeeprs being killed execution style and confirmed allegations of peacekeeping contingents being fired upon by Georgian forces, also before Russian involvement. I never thought Russia would allow the undescriminate killing of its citizens, but it appears Saakashvili was hoping exactly for the contrary. The actions of the Georgian side lead to loss of life, including Russian peacekeepers who had every right to be there from internation agreements.

Regards,
Citizen of the Russian Federation

[Technoviking]

Did anyone even mention the fact that prior to Russian involvement Georgia spent all night shelling the South Ossetian capital and killing as much as 1400 ethnic Ossetians, many of whom hold Russian citizenship? Does this not constitute a form of ethnic cleansing on the part of Georgia? How about the fact that Georgia does this in light of a cease-fire it claimed to have agreed to the night before and the fact that Georgia's invasion of South Ossetia was illegal according UNSC resolutions, and the CIS cease-fire agreement? Georgia flagrantly disregards international law and and recieves support from Washington's disinformational media due only to the fact that Georgia is helping them in Iraq. There are also rumours of Russian peacekeeprs being killed execution style and confirmed allegations of peacekeeping contingents being fired upon by Georgian forces, also before Russian involvement. I never thought Russia would allow the undescriminate killing of its citizens, but it appears Saakashvili was hoping exactly for the contrary. The actions of the Georgian side lead to loss of life, including Russian peacekeepers who had every right to be there from internation agreements.

Regards,
Citizen of the Russian Federation

Здравствулте!  I did read about the Georgians shelling the capital of South Ossetia. I also know it's not a simple case of "good Georgians" vs. "Bad Russians".

In the event you have relatives over there (on either side), I wish them well.
До свидания!

 

[JackD]

Since everyone else says this - how about this ogliarch guy posting details of his name etc... or does this genteleman reperesent the Russian embassy?

[uncle-midget-Oddball]

It's official now, anyhow. Georgia has declared a state of war with Russia

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia's parliament Saturday approved a request by President Mikhail Saakashvili's to impose a "state of war," as the conflict between Georgia and Russia escalated, Georgian officials said.

Midget

[Nerf herder]

It's official now, anyhow. Georgia has declared a state of war with Russia

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html


Midget

It's going to be a short one methinks....someone woke the bear up.

Regards

[milnews.ca]

It's going to be a short one methinks....someone woke the bear up.

Oh yeah - although the last time these contenders faced off, it was ~18 months...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991%E2%80%931992_South_Ossetia_War

And a bit more explanation of the link to oil pipes...
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/09/MNDG127U55.DTL

[Technoviking]

It's going to be a short one methinks....someone woke the bear up.

Regards

Should I start planning the southern front offensive? 

[Flanker]

It's official now, anyhow. Georgia has declared a state of war with Russia

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/09/georgia.ossetia/index.html

Midget

Be aware CNN has been doing pro-Georgian propaganda for a while.
But now they show they complete ignorance and diletantism.

The state of war in this context is the declaration of martial law and not the declaration of war.

So the BIG HEADLINE like "Georgia declares state of war with Russia" is just a BIG LIE.

[Mr.Newf]

Here is a good link.



So, it's time for speculation. What do you all think is going to happen because of this? Another Chechnya, or will all of Georgia be taken by the Russian Bear? Or what else do you think may happen?



-Deadpan

[tomahawk6]

While Putin would love to takeover Georgia he doesnt want to do it at the cost to Russia that Chechnya did. The Russians would settle for evicting the Georgians from S. Ossetia but in the process the province will look like Chechnya did certainly not good for the civilians in the area. Somehow cooler heads need to prevail so that everyone returns their corners.The Georgians dont have much of an air force and the Russians probably have air superiority at this point.Its best for both sides to back off.

[S.M.A.]

Some pictures from the conflict.

[Kirkhill]

As a reminder - here is an article on the existing Turkish Pipeline from Baku on the Caspian via Georgia (and South Ossetia) to Ceyhan in Turkey.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/526515.stm

Then there is this:

Oil prices rise after Turkish pipeline fire
08/08/2008 | 05:07 AM

Email this | Email the Editor | Print | Digg this | Add to del.icio.us NEW YORK - Oil prices jumped back above $120 a barrel Thursday, halting a steep three-day slide after Kurdish rebels claimed responsibility for a fire at key Turkish pipeline that supplies Western countries.

And finally I would note this:

Kongra-Gel was founded by Abdullah Ocalan in 1974 as a Marxist-Leninist separatist organization and formally named the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in 1978.

The Kurdish Rebels in question are the same Rebels at odds with  the American aligned Kurds of Northern Iraq.

My version of the dots.

Iraq reaches public perception as stabilizing.  (Obama's stock falls and becomes a target of Jay Leno)
Oil drops.
Alberta and Moscow see revenues impacted.
Moscow decides to do something about it.
Calls on friends in Turkey and South Ossetia.
Pipeline blown in Turkey.
Georgians act in South Ossetia.
Russians invade to assist friends.
Oil rises.
Moscow, and Alberta, see revenues rise.
PM Putin a happy man.


Edit:  And I would also note this:

TURKEY OFFERS ROUTE TO EUROPE FOR IRANIAN AND TURKMEN GAS

By Vladimir Socor

Thursday, July 19, 2007


 
Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Guler On July 13 in Ankara, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Guler and Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on gas deliveries from Turkmenistan and Iran to Turkey and via Turkey to Europe. A deal along these lines could, if finalized:

open the last available gas corridor to Europe (“fourth corridor”) outside Russian control;

rescue the Nabucco pipeline project (originally planned for Iranian gas);

give Turkmenistan for the first time an overland outlet to Turkey and farther afield, circumventing the Caspian Sea instead of crossing it;

provide direct access for Iranian gas westward, diversifying the European Union’s supplies away from dependence on Gazprom; and

put some counter-leverage into European hands ahead of 2010, when some major supply agreements with Gazprom are up for renegotiation.

And there is this on Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia and the EU and the Caspian Pipeline.

Trans-caspian gaz pipeline project: Azerbaijan might transit Kazakh gas to Georgia
Breaking News published on 23/04/2006

Astana, 23 April 2006 (Trend.az - website) - A project of gas pipeline construction at the Caspian Sea bottom is now being discussed in Kazakhstan, the Kazakh foreign minister, Kasimjomart Tokayev told Trend.

“Pipeline construction across Caspian sea is also discussed in EU, which has prepared a document – ‘Green Map’. Kazakhstan is now studying the given project as it does have a number of significant geopolitical situations. The more there are chances to transport out energy resources, the better for us,” he said.

Implementation of this project will allow gas transports to Azerbaijan directly. From Azerbaijan it can be transported to Georgia and further on. Currently the both countries are receiving gas via Russian territory.

Yes.  It is all about oil.  The EU's need for it and Russia's desire to control it.

[Flip]

I don't know or understand anything about all this but this strikes me as a little cynical 

Yes.  It is all about oil.  The EU's need for it and Russia's desire to control it.

If you are correct and oil and gas are the motivators, is it safe to assume that this will be long and nasty?  Will the Russian people continue in their adoration of Putin?
The earlier articles suggested that it was another "bad Americans" story and had to do with Russia saving face or something like that. 

Anyhow, I doubt there will be a happy ending for anyone before the olympics are over.

As for the inclusion of Alberta in your comment..........
I think we here in Ralph's world would like to export oil and gas at price the US can afford.  That is, if our major customer slips deeper into recession it wouldn't do us a lot of good.  The Russians however may be in a position to gain from a near monopoly, they certainly have in the recent past and may indeed be positioning for it in the future.

 

[Kirkhill]

I plead guilty to cynicism.

I am not particularly bothered about the biases of the reports.  It is just the facts of the pipelines and the markets that interest me.

As to Alberta, as a proud born-again Albertan, (3rd time back here), I am as happy as anybody with a high price of oil.  The same goes for friends in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the ungrateful wretches in BC that prefer to ignore the hydrocarbon component of their wealth.

Alberta is included just to demonstrate that parties other than the Russians benefit from these types of crises.

Sorry to aggravate Flip. 

PS With respect to long and nasty and Russians respecting Putin.

For my money, the longer Putin can stretch this thing out the happier he will be - so long as it isn't Russian soldiers being killed.  By and large the Russians want jobs and petro-rubles are fuelling GazProm jobs which, in turn, make for happy and healthy Rutin supporters.

[Korporaal]

Russia claims 10 of there peacekeepers were killed by the Georgians and that this was one of the reasons for the invasion.

Isn`t this a bit like the Taliban sending peacekeepers to Afghanistan.

Common sense and politics make strange bed fellows.

[milnews.ca]

A bit of a map, showing some of the hot spots (also shows the airfield base - zoom in on the tiny red flag - of Ex Immediate Response 2008,  which reportedly, "united forces from several nations to participate in small arms, combat lifesaver, and situational training exercises. Countries involved include the United States, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Armenia."

Apologies for lack of map info in Georgia and other Caucasus republics - don't know if this is a recent Google development, or something long standing.

[Tango2Bravo]

Should I start planning the southern front offensive? 

Remember to keep your flanks strong this time.   

[GAP]

That is, if our major customer slips deeper into recession it wouldn't do us a lot of good. 

Right now, a recession in the US is good for them....it forces them to deal with/block future sub prime type garbage ( much like they did with the other crisis over the last couple of decades). It also forces them to take a good look, not that it will do much good, at the offshore production they depend on so much, but that is killing jobs at home. (think china and Indonesia)

[tomahawk6]

The US economy isnt in as bad a shape as the media portrays. Anyone else in the world have 5.7% or less unemployment ? Didnt think so thats hardly a recession.

[GAP]

The US economy isnt in as bad a shape as the media portrays. Anyone else in the world have 5.7% or less unemployment ? Didnt think so thats hardly a recession.

I agree, but the recession mentality is still there, especially with an election in November...

[Kirkhill]

As I understand it the media keeps reporting that the US is in danger of slipping into recession.  It just never seems to get there. 

It has yet to "achieve" two quarters of sustained reduction in GDP.

[tomahawk6]

The media is trying to create the impression of an economic downturn because they are trying to help the democrats. There are segments of the economy in a downturn some of its due to high fuel prices RV industry for one,trucking and airlines are others.The housing market is down. All economies have sectors that are cyclical.Not sure what this has to do with the conflict in Georgia. The danger is that the Russians may want to simply take Georgia and install a government friendly to Russia this would solve many of their problems in the region but give them heartburn internationally.I dont see the US intervening to save Georgia which in turn makes the US look weak. We have fewer options and I dont like that at all.

[JayJay144]

Pretty smart to attack during the Olympics, everyone distracted and looking eleswhere.

I have to say, I'm quite irritated. This could be the start of a major war in Europe, and I can't even watch a damn thing about it on the News because Senator John Edwards cheated on his wife two years ago. Priorities, eh?

Midget

Does this mean Israel will attack Iran during the Olympic time frame? What are the chances I wonder.